The Migration Advisory Committee, commonly known as the MAC, recently published an independent report on GOV.UK concerning the retention and departure patterns of work visa migrants in the UK. The report is titled Who stays, who leaves? Evidence from administrative records on the Skilled Worker route.
The title itself is direct enough: who stays, and who leaves?
Based on Home Office administrative data, the report analyses main applicants who entered the UK through the Tier 2 General, Skilled Worker and Health and Care Worker routes between 2014 and 2024, and examines whether they continued to hold lawful immigration status in the UK after obtaining a work visa. This “lawful status” includes continuing to hold a valid visa, obtaining indefinite leave to remain, or eventually becoming a British citizen.
Unlike general visa statistics, this report does not simply ask “how many people obtained work visas”. Instead, it goes further and asks a longer term question: among those who enter the UK through work visas, how many eventually stay?
This question is becoming increasingly important. For the government, the long term retention rate of work visa holders affects net migration figures, population projections, housing demand, pressure on public services and fiscal modelling. For employers, it relates to whether overseas recruitment can genuinely translate into a stable long term workforce. For applicants, it also means that the Skilled Worker route is no longer merely a work visa route, but is increasingly becoming a core entry point into the UK’s long term immigration system.
Work visa migrants are increasingly likely to stay in the UK
The report shows that migrants entering the UK work visa system in recent years are, overall, more likely to remain in the UK in the long term.
The comparison between those who entered the work visa route in 2014 and those who entered in 2019 is particularly striking. Among applicants who first obtained a work visa in 2014, 74% still held lawful immigration status in the UK five years later. Among applicants who first obtained a work visa in 2019, this figure had risen to 85%.
This suggests that, over the past decade, the actual function of the work visa route has changed. It is no longer merely a short term employment arrangement. For a growing number of applicants, it has become a primary route towards long term residence, indefinite leave to remain and even British citizenship.
The MAC considers that this shift may be linked to several factors, including changes in the policy environment, stronger settlement intentions among applicants, and changes in the composition of work visa cohorts in different years. In particular, after 2020, the UK ended EU free movement and introduced a new points based immigration system. The Skilled Worker route replaced the previous Tier 2 General route, and the skill threshold was at one stage lowered from RQF Level 6 to RQF Level 3, significantly broadening the range of roles covered by the employer sponsorship system.
This institutional change has gradually transformed the work visa route from a relatively elite and restrictive pathway into part of a broader labour migration system.
Lower paid applicants are more likely to stay
One of the more interesting findings in the report is that income and long term retention are not simply positively correlated.
The MAC found that applicants with the lowest salaries when they first obtained a work visa were actually the most likely to remain in the UK in the long term. In particular, work visa applicants earning less than £40,000 per year generally had higher retention rates than those in higher salary bands.
By contrast, the highest earning group, namely those earning more than £125,000 per year, had a lower long term retention rate, especially after five years.
This conclusion may seem counterintuitive. Many people might assume that high earning applicants are more likely to adapt to life in the UK and have greater capacity to remain. However, the report suggests that high earners often have more global career opportunities and face lower costs when moving to another country or returning to their country of origin. As a result, they may not necessarily see the UK as their only long term destination.
By comparison, lower paid Skilled Worker applicants, especially those from lower income countries, may be more inclined to regard the UK as a long term place of settlement. This finding has practical significance for future policy. If the UK government links settlement more closely to income in the future, the groups policymakers most wish to encourage may not necessarily be the groups most willing to stay in reality.
Health and social care workers have the highest retention rate
The report also shows significant differences in retention rates across industries. Among them, applicants working in health and social care are the most likely to remain in the UK in the long term.
For those who first entered the work visa route between 2014 and 2019, 88.2% of applicants working in human health and social work activities still held lawful immigration status in the UK five years later. Looking more specifically at occupations, nurses had an especially high retention rate. The report shows that 94% of nurses still held lawful immigration status five years after receiving their first work visa.
These figures show that the health and care sector not only relies on overseas labour, but that these overseas workers themselves are also more inclined to remain in the UK in the long term.
This is not difficult to understand. The health and care sector has long faced labour shortages, and relevant roles tend to offer relatively stable employment. Occupations such as nursing also involve professional qualifications and registration requirements, which make it administratively more costly to move between countries. In addition, Health and Care visa holders may be more likely to bring dependants, and the education, daily life and community integration of family members in the UK may further reduce the likelihood of onward migration.
However, the report also reminds readers that a high retention rate does not only mean workforce retention. For lower paid care roles, long term residence may also involve more complex fiscal implications. This does not mean that the care sector is unimportant. Rather, it shows that the government is increasingly concerned with the long term economic and public service impacts of different occupational groups when assessing immigration policy.
Higher education and research workers are more likely to leave
In contrast to health and social care, the education sector, especially higher education and research roles, shows a much lower long term retention rate.
The report shows that within the work visa route, applicants working in education are significantly less likely to remain in the UK in the long term than those in other sectors. The MAC further points out that the main employers in this sector are higher education institutions, namely universities and research institutions.
Among specific occupations, natural and social science professionals had the lowest five year retention rate, at only 57%.
This phenomenon is closely linked to the structure of careers in higher education and research. In university research roles, short term contracts, project based contracts and international mobility are very common. Many researchers are highly internationally mobile by nature, and may complete one stage of research or employment in the UK before moving to another country or returning to their country of origin.
Therefore, even within the same Skilled Worker route, different industries reflect very different migration logics. Nurses and care workers are closer to a stable settlement group, while university researchers are closer to globally mobile talent.
Chinese applicants remain closely linked to the student route
The report also discusses differences between applicants of different nationalities.
Between 2014 and 2024, Indian nationals formed the largest group of main applicants under the work visa routes. At the same time, China and Nigeria were among the few top ten nationalities where the proportion switching into work visas from within the UK was higher than the proportion applying directly from overseas.
This is especially important for Chinese applicants. It reflects the continued close connection between Chinese applicants and the UK education route. Many Chinese applicants do not apply directly from China for a work visa to come to the UK. Instead, they first enter the UK on a student visa and then switch into the Skilled Worker route from within the UK.
The report also shows that, among those who first switched into the Skilled Worker route from within the UK between 2021 and 2024, 54% came from the Student route and 23% came from the Graduate Route. In other words, the Student visa and Graduate Route remain important preliminary pathways into the UK work visa system.
However, the report also notes that the proportion switching from the Student or Graduate routes into work visas has declined compared with the 2014 to 2020 period. Among the earlier cohort, around 91% of in country switchers into work visas came from the Student route or post study work routes. After 2021, this figure fell to around 77%. This may indicate that, as the Skilled Worker system expanded, more people from non traditional student pathways also began entering the work visa system.
Age, gender and application location also affect retention rates
In addition to industry, salary and nationality, the report also analyses the impact of age, gender and application location on retention rates.
In terms of age, people who first obtained a work visa at the age of 45 or above were significantly less likely to still hold lawful immigration status in the UK five years later than those under 45. The report shows that among applicants aged 45 or above when they first obtained a work visa, around 65% still held lawful immigration status five years later. Among those under 45, the figure was around 81%.
This is broadly consistent with practical reality. Older applicants may already have more established family, career and social ties in their country of origin, and working in the UK may not necessarily mean long term settlement. Younger applicants, by contrast, are more likely to build career paths, social relationships and family life in the UK, giving them a stronger incentive to stay.
In terms of gender, female work visa applicants are more likely than male applicants to remain in the UK in the long term. Five years later, female Skilled Worker visa holders were around 5 percentage points more likely than male holders to continue holding lawful immigration status. The report suggests that this may be linked to family migration strategies, industry distribution and the higher proportion of women in the care sector. In the full sample, 61% of female work visa applicants worked in health and social care related industries, compared with 32% of male applicants.
In terms of application location, those who switched into the Skilled Worker route from within the UK were more likely to stay in the long term than those who applied directly from overseas. This is not surprising. People who are already in the UK usually have a clearer understanding of British society, the language environment, the labour market and living costs. Choosing to switch into a work visa is itself an active decision to continue staying in the UK.
What does this report actually mean?
The significance of this report lies not only in describing who stays and who leaves, but also in providing a new evidence base for future UK immigration policy.
The UK government is currently considering a so called “earned settlement” system, under which different migrant groups may be placed on different lengths of settlement routes depending on factors such as visa type, income and English language ability. Although this MAC report does not directly propose a settlement reform package, its data will clearly form an important background to policy discussions.
The picture presented by the report is quite clear: recent work visa migrants are increasingly likely to remain in the UK in the long term; lower paid applicants are more likely to stay than higher paid applicants; health and social care workers have the highest retention rate; higher education and research workers are more likely to leave; Chinese applicants remain closely connected to the Student route and in country switching into work visas; and younger applicants, female applicants and in country switchers are more likely to remain in the UK in the long term.
These findings mean that future UK government discussions around work visas and settlement may no longer focus only on “who can come to the UK”. They may increasingly shift towards the question of “who is likely to stay after coming to the UK”.
This is also an important direction in the recent development of UK immigration policy. Immigration policy is no longer simply about border and entry control. It is gradually becoming an instrument of long term population, labour market and fiscal planning.
AGSO Summary
This report shows that the UK government’s understanding of the Skilled Worker route is changing. In the past, the Skilled Worker route was mainly seen as a tool for addressing labour shortages. Now, it is also being viewed as an important entry point for selecting long term migrant populations.
This will have implications for different groups.
For applicants, future UK immigration policy may place greater emphasis on long term contribution, salary level, sectoral demand and settlement intention. For employers, Sponsor Licence and the Skilled Worker route are no longer merely short term recruitment tools, but may directly affect long term workforce planning. For international students, graduates and Skilled Worker visa holders already in the UK, this report once again shows that the Skilled Worker route remains an important pathway towards long term residence in the UK. However, the policy environment is becoming more detailed, more targeted and more selective.
If the UK further reforms its settlement system in the future, differences between occupations, income levels, industries and immigration pathways may become increasingly important.